Oxus Gold might well glitter soon

Oxus Gold is an unloved share at the moment, when news that the arbitration was to be fully funded broke the share price reached 6p. However after several years wait people have moved on to other things.

This is a mistake in my opinion. The timetable for the arbitration is secret, however with a bit of work and research you can determine a rough plan. Oxus received funding from Darwin to take it through the arbitration. Last year it changed this funding to terminate in September 2014. I find it inconceivable that OXUS would arrange funding to finish just a few months before the award. So its safe to assume that the award will be known to the market by this time.

If we delve a little deeper into past Uncitral arbitration's we can see that the normal plan is to decide on the fault, then to decide on award value if any, then both parties submit costs and finally the arbitration board decides on who should bear costs and the final monetary award is announced and the arbitration concludes. If we look at timescales for the above its highly unlikely imo that OXUS will not be told the fault decision i.e whether its won or loss after June.

This means that we have a 2.5 month window now for the most important decision. (probably may but that’s more of a hunch).

With a 2p Share price currently, if they lose it goes to around .25p a share, if they win then what…?

Well I think given the depressed prices against NPV atm, gold price etc you could possibly make a case that they will only get 150m rather than the 1.5bn they are asking for. However the court might well give far higher than this. So if they win a rise in the SP to 10p (before the award is announced) is very possible. Any further gain will depend on the award.

For me it’s a buy before the end of April situation and I fully intend on getting another 500k of shares.