Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Thoughts on an Oxus settlement


To add, these are just my thoughts on how its gone,what’s happen/happening and how it might all pan out. These thoughts are of course based on my own research, conclusions, conversations and guesses, but it will be interesting to see how close it is to real life.

So….

The final hearing was held in Feb 2014 in Paris (last week of Feb).

The arbitration panel had a meeting in May to discuss the decision and possible award considerations.

The panel are fundamentally split on a decision. With Pierre Tercier and Marc Lalonde in favour of a decision towards OXUS and Ms Stern against any such conclusion. Ms Stern has been invited by the other 2 members of the panel to draw up an alternative decision. This alternative position is not binding and largely irrelevant. Ms Stern has asked Tim Hart for firmer details in a post hearing memorial statement.
The majority decision of the panel is to find in favour of OXUS, an agreement that the BIT has been broken by the Uzbeks and that OXUS needs to be compensated for its loss.

The decision is released to the parties in a letter dated 11th of June and decision made public on the morning of the 16th. Ms Stern releases her minority findings on the 16th.

In July A figure of $380m is given as an award to OXUS. With an interest rate applied of 4% pa from 2010 and an ongoing interest rate of .5% above libor. In the same declaration costs are deemed to be shared by both parties, with each party paying its own costs as it has been shown that not all points against the Uzbeks have been proven.


Wonder how close it will be…..

11 comments:

  1. Where did you source those dates and figures from or are you saying this is just guess work and fun

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  2. guess work, fun, research, conclusions...Happy for people to let me know their own opinions, this is just my opinion at the end of the day and i don't claim to have any inner knowledge.

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  3. Hi, you know the names of the arbitrators is this information in the pubic realm as I thought it was all a big secret this arbitration process?

    You seem quite specific on timing and size of award and although you say its guesses and research, you seem fairly confident in some sort of win for Oxus, so my question is, what percentage of your own investment would you risk on Oxus winning? Cheers

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  4. i have about 10% of my PF in here, all winnings from other shares this year. I would urge people to only invest what they can comfortable afford to write off in OXS.
    Arbitration is very secret, but names etc are disclosed.

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  5. Great blog Iceberg hope it all pans out our way couple more weeks to wait fingers crossed hope it comes in for us all.

    1st time on your blog will be coming back :)

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  6. Research takes time and effort, well done. After doing some research myself, I tend to agree with you. Not long now!

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  7. BREAKING NEWS. Apparently tim hart's statement has blown oxus's case out of the water and the panel now see things in a very different light and may award oxus zero.

    will be interesting to see how close that is. !!

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  8. we won't know whether its all wrong until we get the result....Dates are yep :)

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  9. iceberg - you are a total waste of time

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