Friday, July 25, 2014

Bacanora(BCN) - Ending the drought


Firstly I should say I am still on my hols and will be for a few more weeks, so it takes something special for me to write anything now.

That something special is the first new mining company to float on AIM for 3 years...
Bacanora has been on my radar for a few years now, I've greatly admired the ability of BCN to find good sites to fund them and to advance them with minimal dilution.
It has two great projects in the Magdalena Borate project and the Sonara Lithium project.

Both Projects are in Mexico, both in the more stable northern aspects of Mexico with easy access to the worlds largest market. Both projects are advanced and have been advanced on minimal spend.
As per the BCN CEO "We're looking now to do the feasibility on both of the projects," Mr Orr-Erwing said. "We hope to be offering Borate by 2015 and Lithium in 2017."

The borate project is highly advanced with plans to produce $25m of borate per year starting in 2015 with an initial capex spend of 7.25m.
This is important, firstly it provides much needed money, secondly it demonstrates that the borate project is highly economic and with larger processing could be raking in $100m a year pretty easily, thirdly it demonstrates that BCN is capable of taking a project through to production.

Then we have the well known lithium desposit, i won't go into too much detail here as its well known. But with a potential $20-30bn of resources, a pilot that has confirmed the ability to produce battery grade lithium and at very low costs. BCN quite possibly has the largest lowest cost resource of lithium in the world.

Internals. 45% of all the shares are held by 3 long term investors. Another 20% are held my other longer term investors. That leaves around 20-30m in free float.
Of that 20-30m many will be in the hands of longer term investors, however despite this 7m shares traded hands today, maybe as many as 50% of all the tradable shares. In London BCN shares rose quickly and 3 times bounced of 80p. This is either a very very quick support level or its the level that somebody is wanting to load up at.

The AIM market makers shown strong signs of pushing the bid up, pulling in any issue shares and raising the ask with any string of buys. All of this points to strong rise next week.
Longer term BCN should reach parity of NPV discount to REM, maybe over 3-4 weeks for the lithium project.
There is also the expectation of news during this period. A jagged rise to 3-4p is certainly possible.

So a special case to break the drought on AIM and its taken a truly extraordinary company to do it. For many investors it will take them by surprise.....

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