Wednesday, May 20, 2015

#NEW the way out of wonderland.


#NEW the way out of wonderland.



The more it goes on, the more I am reminded of Alice in Wonderland. Mysterious smoking Caterpillars, Cheshire cats and Mad Hatters. I will leave folks to figure out who might be who in this scenario and who is the Queen of Hearts…

Anyway so following on from Ben’s excellent feedback from the EGM. We have an independent count in place for the votes. This is mind-blowingly good news, the BOD have also had to confirm that the register is in such a mess that it can’t even count the votes accurately.

A lot of side line investors kept repeating the mantra, that EGM’s will rubber stamp it, the BOD will get their way they always do….This is true nearly of the time, but is blatantly not true this time, with this EGM.

Going forward we need to find a way out of this wonderland. The FCA/LSE does not like to deal with things “in the open”, instead a way forward will be found which satisfies all parties to a degree and one that keeps everything working. It won’t really care what happens as long as everything is seen to be “working”.

A number of behind the scenes, happenings have occurred. We have a stock that has now been suspended. We have a broker who has supported and organised the placement and the 2bn none existent shares, who has a web site that has been down for “maintenance” for days now. Whether you believe this, in a world of 24hr hosting support, for a small and simple website is up to you.

The only thing we need for a full house is some kind of sanction against the nomad, or for their website to “go down for maintenance”.

The FCA/LSE will no doubt have contacted the nomad of #NEW to discuss the situation of a failed and very public EGM. Having a company suspended simple because it can’t hold an EGM vote is not good publicity for the AIM exchange and I can’t see it happening for long.

So the FCA, LSE, Broker, BOD, Shareholders and Nomad all need a way out of wonderland. For me the majority of the impact will fall on the broker as they must have ultimate responsibility for the placing if it fails.

An open offer will not meet any of the above criteria, it will be challenged left, right and centre due to the mess of the registry. It will take too long. It will not give enough shares to the broker to meet its obligations. It is not in the best interest of the company given the current offer price.

A new placement of shares at the maximum price of the last 10-20 days, would get a passed vote by the current shareholders imho(this is needed for legal and “clean” reasons). It would put the shares in the hands of the broker and enable the various counterparties, funds etc to settle, it would allow the flip floppers to buy the shares they needed from the placing, solving that problem. The share registry would be healthy again and the company would have a large injection of cash to move forward.

The above of course would mean the broker losing out or passing that loss on to the funds or its clients. It would also mean the flip floppers potentially having to take a hit. The FCA and LSE could claim that the markets have worked themselves out, without creating a new precedent.

Anyway just a thought and lots more to happen on this share, I have no doubt. Keep a firm strategy in your mind, at the moment I am happy to hold.

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